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木头姐投资“大难临头”,科技股暴跌还不是最惨

木头姐投资“大难临头”,科技股暴跌还不是最惨

Shawn Tully 2022-01-21
价值投资者不会认同伍德对价值的定义。

2021年12月中旬,凯茜·伍德旗下的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF的净值暴跌,然而她越发笃定投资冒险且震撼全球的技术,坚信数年后有望获得丰厚的收益。在接受彭博社(Bloomberg)的采访时,方舟投资(ARK Invest)的创始人及首席执行官伍德表示,以当前超低价格买入,比起在峰值附近买入收益可以翻倍。2021年12月17日,伍德在推特(Twitter)上发推文称:“创新类股票并没有泡沫,具有深度价值。”

伍德的投资属于反价值路线

从沃伦·巴菲特到卡尔·伊坎,价值投资者都不会认同伍德对价值的定义。通常来说,价值型股票是指投资后能够获得巨额收益,或者企业在扣除债务后,以低于拥有的厂房、建筑物、管道或专利价格出售的股票。现实当中,基本上找不到比ARK Innovation投资组合更集中、不顾价值、全方位投资增长型股票的平台。在过去几个月里,市场一直倾向低位徘徊不受关注的领域,例如能源和消费品品牌等,回避因为居家办公而业绩大放光彩的科技明星。伍德的投资组合一直表现不佳,因为她不仅与大势相悖,而且从特斯拉(Tesla)到Coinbase再到Robinhood,她大笔持有风险最高也最时髦的热门股票。“这是增长与价值对冲的极端案例。”佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)的经济学家杰伊·里特尔说。“增长极快的企业曾经获市场争相追捧,市盈率不断上升,彼时伍德买入相关公司可以说很幸运。多数信奉价值或热衷增长的投资者不会走极端,因为有时候极端很可怕。只要能够获得各方媒体关注,派对不断继续,按照她的思路就可以做得非常好。”现在,长期后遗症已经开始。曾经狂欢的人们质疑,久经考验的规则是不是真像伍德声称的一样不再适用,还是说警告的声音其实一直正确。

事实上,当增长型股票价格大幅高估,而价值型股票便宜时,从成长股转向价值股不可避免,这正是当前的实际情况。然而伍德仍然坚持发布震惊媒体的言论,宣称市盈率等坚实基本面以及新加入竞争者从前辈手中攫取利润不再重要。未来属于不断传播加密货币、自动驾驶汽车和基因大爆发等故事的大胆创新者,故事实在酷炫到惊人,到最后要花多少钱才能够买到手几乎无人关注。

ARK Innovation遭遇断崖式下跌

早些年,伍德看起来很有远见。即使现在来看,五年前购买ARK Innovation份额的回报率也远超过250%,至少超过纳斯达克(Nasdaq)指数80个基点。但自从2021年2月初基金净值创下152美元的历史新高以来,一直快速下跌,结果是买入和持有份额实在太昂贵,只有收益达到无法实现水平才可以确保净值保持当前水平,扩张空间更是别想。市场开始意识到,未来几年利润将远低于预期目标。自2021年年初达到高点以来,截至1月10日中午,ARK已经跌至82.45美元,跌幅达46%。三分之一回调发生在伍德发推文称ARK处于“深度价值”后。ARK错过了历史性的涨幅:2021年年初以来已经抛售33%持仓,同期的标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上涨25%,纳斯达克指数上涨了15%。

自2021年年初以来,ARK的重仓股多数出现大幅下跌。按照ARK总投资中所占份额来看,前10名重仓股中唯一上涨的是特斯拉,涨幅为34%。自2021年4月上市以来,Coinbase走势大致持平,而Unity Software下跌了14%、Block下跌31%、Twilio下跌34%、Spotify下跌36%,还有Exact Sciences下跌45%。排名第二、第三和第四的重仓股是Roku、Teladoc和Zoom(占投资组合18%),分别下跌60%、67%和52%。人们可能会认为,大跌之后的ARK Innovation可能从极其昂贵变得十分便宜。但令人惊讶的是,以传统判断标准来看,目前其价格仍然高得惊人。

如果研究ARK如何坚持伍德的未来技术选股原则,就会让人感觉相当奇妙。其实当中的很多公司利润微薄,更常见的是巨额亏损。而且她选择的多数公司的成立时间已经不短,赚钱的机会非常多,却仍然做不到盈利。

我向ARK的发言人发送了简要分析内容。该发言人拒绝发表评论。

把ARK当成大公司

为了分析方便,我把ARK Innovation当成一家投资多家企业的大型控股公司,暂且称之为ARK Inc.。这也是投资者购买ETF份额时实际达成的一揽子交易。我根据ARK持股百分比与公司总利润,计算出其在每只股票利润中所占的份额。比如,ARK对Zoom的9亿美元投资相当于持股比例1.7%。由于过去四季度Zoom宣布根据美国通用会计准则(GAAP)计算净利润为11亿美元,ARK在其利润中的份额占1870万美元(1.7%×11亿美元)。虽然ARK持有特斯拉股票的市值为13.3亿美元,而特斯拉是其最大的重仓股,占投资组合的8.5%,但其持股仅占特斯拉超过1万亿美元市值的0.12%。因此,ARK在特斯拉31亿美元的利润中所占份额仅为370万美元。请记住,特斯拉的市盈率高达350倍。与之类似,ARK持有Unity Software股份比例为1.9%,Unity Software在随后四个季度亏损4.55亿美元。因此,ARK Inc.在Unity的亏损中占的份额为负860万美元。

我将各项收益和损失相加以确定“ARK Inc.”的总收益。总体利润、赚钱股票的收益与ARK投资的市值之比,以及亏钱股票的巨额亏损情况,都表现出该基金并不遵守价值世界的规则。除非股价以令人震惊的速度上涨,才能够从大幅亏损变成赚大钱,重振萎靡不振的业绩。

1月4日,ARK持有43家公司的股票,市值156亿美元。可以将ARK Inc.的市值视为156亿美元。过去四个季度中,按照美国通用会计准则净利润计算方法,只有10%或不到四分之一的股票净利润为正。以Roku(占投资组合6.2%)、Coinbase(5.1%)、Block(3.75%)和Crispr(2.8%)等为代表的赚钱公司总利润为1.336亿美元。现在考虑一下亏损股票价格与利润相比的情况。在156亿美元的总持股中,赚钱的股票占58亿美元,占37%。赚钱股票的市盈率高达43倍,远高于近期纳斯达克36倍的平均水平。请记住,最近抛售浪潮之前,ARK持股中盈利股票的市盈率还要高得多。

然而,43倍的市盈率仍然可能被低估了。令人惊讶的是,利润最大来源是该基金持有Coinbase的5%股份。2021年4月上市,Coinbase表现出强大的盈利能力,达到近35亿美元,ARK持股分到的利润为4400万美元。事实上,仅这家加密交易所的利润就占10家赚钱公司总利润的三分之一。

研究公司New Constructions的首席执行官戴维·特雷纳则表示,应该看看Coinbase对劝退投资者的巨大贡献。“他们对加密货币交易收费过高。”他告诉《财富》杂志。“社交媒体上人们开玩笑说,花10美元买加密货币,手续费却要20美元。经纪或交易所业务从未见过如此高的利润。”特雷纳认为竞争对手很快就会以更低的价格提供类似服务,部分原因是“Coinbase并无进入壁垒。”他推测,未来Coinbase的利润将稳定在每年12亿美元左右,远低于目前的利润。按照他的描述,竞争激烈利润惨淡,很长时间里将影响公司创造巨大利润,而这点正是伍德投资的理由。顺便说一句,Coinbase的净利润大幅下降后,ARK盈利股的市盈率从43推到惊人的55,危险越发明显。

ARK的大问题:很多行业亏钱,主要是医疗

按照1月3日市值计算,ARK的其他三分之二投资都投向了33家亏损企业。过去四个季度按照比例计算,33家企业亏损加起来为4.28亿美元。总体来看,基金持仓每年损失为2.94亿美元(赚钱公司利润为1.336亿美元,亏钱公司亏损4.28亿美元)。因此,ARK Inc.的市盈率为负。其份额每卖出一美元损失为2美分。很大一部分亏损因为投资机器人(UiPath)、软件(Unity)、计算机硬件(3D系统)、移动通信(Trimble)以及教育和培训(2U)等领域的冒险技术。根据ARK的持股比例,Robinhood对利润拖累最大,导致亏钱公司的总亏损增加了5800万美元。其股票也一直走低,自2021年7月上市以来已经下跌60%。

亏损主要集中在医疗行业。ARK在医疗领域投资了18家公司,股票市值50亿美元,占投资组合的三分之一。按照美国通用会计准则净利润计算方法,被ARK视为引领医疗革命的17家公司都在亏损。大多数公司都在努力开发生物技术(例如Fate Therapeutics、Veracyte、Pacific Bioscience)或基因组(2U、10X、Crispr)方面的突破性疗法。唯一盈利的公司是Crispr,在帮助ARK盈利的企业中贡献仅次于Coinbase。Crispr是基因编辑领域的知名巨头,过去四个季度里赚得4.03亿美元,ARK持有的8.2%份额盈利也达到3300万美元。

然而其他17家公司挖下了巨坑,单靠Crispr的巨大贡献也无法填补。ARK在医疗投资组合中的损失份额为2亿美元,约占亏损公司总损失的一半。

也许伍德希望生物技术或基因领域能够出现一些大赢家,从而拯救ARK。里特尔指出:“这类盈利预期偏差很大,就像投资拍电影一样。大多数失败,最后有几部轰动一时的电影,赚的钱还没有投入高。”ARK可能会这样。问题是伍德投资的大部分医疗公司成立时间并不短。自2020年年初以来,18家公司中只有5家成功上市。然而,只有Crispr在赚钱。

ARK将走向何方?

为了实现伍德预测的40%年收益,2027年年初的ARK的持股总回报要达到440%。为实现目标,投资组合公司必须从亏损转为大幅盈利,我们认为这样的大逆转并不会出现,机会几乎为零。可能性更大的是,ARK仍然非常昂贵,与交易真正发生的价值领域相悖,未来几年表现比不上同期纳斯达克和其他指数。伍德让人们记得更清楚的,可能是改变行业规则的文化现象。特雷纳说:“她是直接跟投资者谈话的基金经理新榜样,她擅长做受欢迎的事,但也给投资者造成了巨大伤害。”

伍德曾经抓住了投资史上最强劲的潮流之一。如今潮水逆转,浪花翻涌,ARK正在逐渐沉没。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

2021年12月中旬,凯茜·伍德旗下的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF的净值暴跌,然而她越发笃定投资冒险且震撼全球的技术,坚信数年后有望获得丰厚的收益。在接受彭博社(Bloomberg)的采访时,方舟投资(ARK Invest)的创始人及首席执行官伍德表示,以当前超低价格买入,比起在峰值附近买入收益可以翻倍。2021年12月17日,伍德在推特(Twitter)上发推文称:“创新类股票并没有泡沫,具有深度价值。”

伍德的投资属于反价值路线

从沃伦·巴菲特到卡尔·伊坎,价值投资者都不会认同伍德对价值的定义。通常来说,价值型股票是指投资后能够获得巨额收益,或者企业在扣除债务后,以低于拥有的厂房、建筑物、管道或专利价格出售的股票。现实当中,基本上找不到比ARK Innovation投资组合更集中、不顾价值、全方位投资增长型股票的平台。在过去几个月里,市场一直倾向低位徘徊不受关注的领域,例如能源和消费品品牌等,回避因为居家办公而业绩大放光彩的科技明星。伍德的投资组合一直表现不佳,因为她不仅与大势相悖,而且从特斯拉(Tesla)到Coinbase再到Robinhood,她大笔持有风险最高也最时髦的热门股票。“这是增长与价值对冲的极端案例。”佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)的经济学家杰伊·里特尔说。“增长极快的企业曾经获市场争相追捧,市盈率不断上升,彼时伍德买入相关公司可以说很幸运。多数信奉价值或热衷增长的投资者不会走极端,因为有时候极端很可怕。只要能够获得各方媒体关注,派对不断继续,按照她的思路就可以做得非常好。”现在,长期后遗症已经开始。曾经狂欢的人们质疑,久经考验的规则是不是真像伍德声称的一样不再适用,还是说警告的声音其实一直正确。

事实上,当增长型股票价格大幅高估,而价值型股票便宜时,从成长股转向价值股不可避免,这正是当前的实际情况。然而伍德仍然坚持发布震惊媒体的言论,宣称市盈率等坚实基本面以及新加入竞争者从前辈手中攫取利润不再重要。未来属于不断传播加密货币、自动驾驶汽车和基因大爆发等故事的大胆创新者,故事实在酷炫到惊人,到最后要花多少钱才能够买到手几乎无人关注。

ARK Innovation遭遇断崖式下跌

早些年,伍德看起来很有远见。即使现在来看,五年前购买ARK Innovation份额的回报率也远超过250%,至少超过纳斯达克(Nasdaq)指数80个基点。但自从2021年2月初基金净值创下152美元的历史新高以来,一直快速下跌,结果是买入和持有份额实在太昂贵,只有收益达到无法实现水平才可以确保净值保持当前水平,扩张空间更是别想。市场开始意识到,未来几年利润将远低于预期目标。自2021年年初达到高点以来,截至1月10日中午,ARK已经跌至82.45美元,跌幅达46%。三分之一回调发生在伍德发推文称ARK处于“深度价值”后。ARK错过了历史性的涨幅:2021年年初以来已经抛售33%持仓,同期的标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上涨25%,纳斯达克指数上涨了15%。

自2021年年初以来,ARK的重仓股多数出现大幅下跌。按照ARK总投资中所占份额来看,前10名重仓股中唯一上涨的是特斯拉,涨幅为34%。自2021年4月上市以来,Coinbase走势大致持平,而Unity Software下跌了14%、Block下跌31%、Twilio下跌34%、Spotify下跌36%,还有Exact Sciences下跌45%。排名第二、第三和第四的重仓股是Roku、Teladoc和Zoom(占投资组合18%),分别下跌60%、67%和52%。人们可能会认为,大跌之后的ARK Innovation可能从极其昂贵变得十分便宜。但令人惊讶的是,以传统判断标准来看,目前其价格仍然高得惊人。

如果研究ARK如何坚持伍德的未来技术选股原则,就会让人感觉相当奇妙。其实当中的很多公司利润微薄,更常见的是巨额亏损。而且她选择的多数公司的成立时间已经不短,赚钱的机会非常多,却仍然做不到盈利。

我向ARK的发言人发送了简要分析内容。该发言人拒绝发表评论。

把ARK当成大公司

为了分析方便,我把ARK Innovation当成一家投资多家企业的大型控股公司,暂且称之为ARK Inc.。这也是投资者购买ETF份额时实际达成的一揽子交易。我根据ARK持股百分比与公司总利润,计算出其在每只股票利润中所占的份额。比如,ARK对Zoom的9亿美元投资相当于持股比例1.7%。由于过去四季度Zoom宣布根据美国通用会计准则(GAAP)计算净利润为11亿美元,ARK在其利润中的份额占1870万美元(1.7%×11亿美元)。虽然ARK持有特斯拉股票的市值为13.3亿美元,而特斯拉是其最大的重仓股,占投资组合的8.5%,但其持股仅占特斯拉超过1万亿美元市值的0.12%。因此,ARK在特斯拉31亿美元的利润中所占份额仅为370万美元。请记住,特斯拉的市盈率高达350倍。与之类似,ARK持有Unity Software股份比例为1.9%,Unity Software在随后四个季度亏损4.55亿美元。因此,ARK Inc.在Unity的亏损中占的份额为负860万美元。

我将各项收益和损失相加以确定“ARK Inc.”的总收益。总体利润、赚钱股票的收益与ARK投资的市值之比,以及亏钱股票的巨额亏损情况,都表现出该基金并不遵守价值世界的规则。除非股价以令人震惊的速度上涨,才能够从大幅亏损变成赚大钱,重振萎靡不振的业绩。

1月4日,ARK持有43家公司的股票,市值156亿美元。可以将ARK Inc.的市值视为156亿美元。过去四个季度中,按照美国通用会计准则净利润计算方法,只有10%或不到四分之一的股票净利润为正。以Roku(占投资组合6.2%)、Coinbase(5.1%)、Block(3.75%)和Crispr(2.8%)等为代表的赚钱公司总利润为1.336亿美元。现在考虑一下亏损股票价格与利润相比的情况。在156亿美元的总持股中,赚钱的股票占58亿美元,占37%。赚钱股票的市盈率高达43倍,远高于近期纳斯达克36倍的平均水平。请记住,最近抛售浪潮之前,ARK持股中盈利股票的市盈率还要高得多。

然而,43倍的市盈率仍然可能被低估了。令人惊讶的是,利润最大来源是该基金持有Coinbase的5%股份。2021年4月上市,Coinbase表现出强大的盈利能力,达到近35亿美元,ARK持股分到的利润为4400万美元。事实上,仅这家加密交易所的利润就占10家赚钱公司总利润的三分之一。

研究公司New Constructions的首席执行官戴维·特雷纳则表示,应该看看Coinbase对劝退投资者的巨大贡献。“他们对加密货币交易收费过高。”他告诉《财富》杂志。“社交媒体上人们开玩笑说,花10美元买加密货币,手续费却要20美元。经纪或交易所业务从未见过如此高的利润。”特雷纳认为竞争对手很快就会以更低的价格提供类似服务,部分原因是“Coinbase并无进入壁垒。”他推测,未来Coinbase的利润将稳定在每年12亿美元左右,远低于目前的利润。按照他的描述,竞争激烈利润惨淡,很长时间里将影响公司创造巨大利润,而这点正是伍德投资的理由。顺便说一句,Coinbase的净利润大幅下降后,ARK盈利股的市盈率从43推到惊人的55,危险越发明显。

ARK的大问题:很多行业亏钱,主要是医疗

按照1月3日市值计算,ARK的其他三分之二投资都投向了33家亏损企业。过去四个季度按照比例计算,33家企业亏损加起来为4.28亿美元。总体来看,基金持仓每年损失为2.94亿美元(赚钱公司利润为1.336亿美元,亏钱公司亏损4.28亿美元)。因此,ARK Inc.的市盈率为负。其份额每卖出一美元损失为2美分。很大一部分亏损因为投资机器人(UiPath)、软件(Unity)、计算机硬件(3D系统)、移动通信(Trimble)以及教育和培训(2U)等领域的冒险技术。根据ARK的持股比例,Robinhood对利润拖累最大,导致亏钱公司的总亏损增加了5800万美元。其股票也一直走低,自2021年7月上市以来已经下跌60%。

亏损主要集中在医疗行业。ARK在医疗领域投资了18家公司,股票市值50亿美元,占投资组合的三分之一。按照美国通用会计准则净利润计算方法,被ARK视为引领医疗革命的17家公司都在亏损。大多数公司都在努力开发生物技术(例如Fate Therapeutics、Veracyte、Pacific Bioscience)或基因组(2U、10X、Crispr)方面的突破性疗法。唯一盈利的公司是Crispr,在帮助ARK盈利的企业中贡献仅次于Coinbase。Crispr是基因编辑领域的知名巨头,过去四个季度里赚得4.03亿美元,ARK持有的8.2%份额盈利也达到3300万美元。

然而其他17家公司挖下了巨坑,单靠Crispr的巨大贡献也无法填补。ARK在医疗投资组合中的损失份额为2亿美元,约占亏损公司总损失的一半。

也许伍德希望生物技术或基因领域能够出现一些大赢家,从而拯救ARK。里特尔指出:“这类盈利预期偏差很大,就像投资拍电影一样。大多数失败,最后有几部轰动一时的电影,赚的钱还没有投入高。”ARK可能会这样。问题是伍德投资的大部分医疗公司成立时间并不短。自2020年年初以来,18家公司中只有5家成功上市。然而,只有Crispr在赚钱。

ARK将走向何方?

为了实现伍德预测的40%年收益,2027年年初的ARK的持股总回报要达到440%。为实现目标,投资组合公司必须从亏损转为大幅盈利,我们认为这样的大逆转并不会出现,机会几乎为零。可能性更大的是,ARK仍然非常昂贵,与交易真正发生的价值领域相悖,未来几年表现比不上同期纳斯达克和其他指数。伍德让人们记得更清楚的,可能是改变行业规则的文化现象。特雷纳说:“她是直接跟投资者谈话的基金经理新榜样,她擅长做受欢迎的事,但也给投资者造成了巨大伤害。”

伍德曾经抓住了投资史上最强劲的潮流之一。如今潮水逆转,浪花翻涌,ARK正在逐渐沉没。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

In mid-December, as her ARK Innovation ETF's shares (ARKK) were plummeting, Cathie Wood doubled down on her claim that betting on adventurous, world-shaking technologies would prove a bonanza in the years ahead. In an interview with Bloomberg, the ARK Invest founder and CEO Investors entering at such supercheap prices would make double the sumptuous returns of folks who bought near the peak. As Wood tweeted on Dec. 17: "Innovation stocks are not in a bubble. They are in deep value territory."

Nothing could be more anti-value than the Wood portfolio

Value investors from Warren Buffett to Carl Icahn wouldn't recognize Wood's definition of the V-word. Value stocks are generally defined as those that produce lots of earnings for the dollars you're investing, or sell below what an enterprise owns in plants, buildings, pipelines, or patents, after subtracting debt. In reality, you couldn't invent a more concentrated, anti-value, all-in-for-growth platform than the portfolio at ARK Innovation. In the past few months, the market's been moving strongly to beaten-down, unloved shares in such areas as energy and consumer brands, and shunning the shooting stars of tech that sparkled in the stay-at-home economy. Wood's been suffering because she's not only on the wrong side of the trend but also dangerously leveraged to the riskiest and most glamorous of the go-go stocks, from Tesla to Coinbase to Robinhood. "This is extreme loading of growth versus value," says Jay Ritter, the University of Florida economist who's the nation's leading expert on IPOs. "Wood got lucky putting the fund's eggs in companies with extremely high growth when the market was bidding up their multiples. Most value or growth investors don't go to those extremes, because some of those extremes are scary. Her approach can do incredibly well as long as you're getting all the media attention and the party keeps going." Now the long hangover has begun. The onetime revelers are questioning if the time-tested rules no longer apply, as Wood claimed, or if the warning voices were right all along.

Indeed, a rotation from growth to value is inevitable when the former is wildly overpriced and its rival a bargain, and that's what we're seeing today. But Wood is sticking to the manifesto that wowed the media: The stalwart fundamentals such as price/earnings multiples and how new competitors grab profits from the first movers no longer count. The future belongs to the daring innovators propagating narratives such as a looming explosion in cryptocurrencies, autonomous vehicles, and genomics so stupendous that it almost doesn't matter what you pay for the pioneers.

ARK Innovation has suffered a shocking decline

In the early years, Wood looked like a visionary. And even today, folks who bought shares in ARK Innovation five years ago have pocketed returns of well over 250%, waxing the Nasdaq by at least 80 basis points. But since ARK hit an all-time peak of $152 in early February, it has suffered a fast slide, the result of buying and holding shares so pricey that only unachievable earnings growth could keep them at current levels—let alone leave room to expand. The market started recognizing that profits will fall far short of the fantasy targets in the years ahead. Since the summit early last year, ARK has fallen to $82.45 as of midday on Jan. 10, a drop of 46%. One-third of that pullback has occurred since Wood's tweet putting ARK in the "deep value" zone. ARK missed a historic bash: Since the start of 2021, it has surrendered 33% versus a rise of 25% for the S&P 500 and 15% for the Nasdaq.

Most of ARK's largest holdings have endured steep declines since the start of 2021. Of its top 10 stocks, measured by their share of ARK's total investments, the only winner is Tesla, which gained 34%. Coinbase is more or less flat since going public in April, while Unity Software shed 14%, Block 31%, Twilio 34%, Spotify 36%, and Exact Sciences 45%. Its numbers two, three, and four bets Roku, Teladoc, and Zoom—encompassing 18% of the portfolio—tumbled 60%, 67%, and 52% respectively. You'd think a retreat this sweeping might have taken ARK Innovation from extremely pricey to a good buy. But amazingly, by any conventional measure, it's still shockingly overpriced.

It's fascinating to examine how ardently ARK is sticking to Wood's tech-of-the-future picks, even though so many generate puny profits or, more often, big losses. And most of her choices have been around for a long time, enjoying an ample runway to make money, but continuing to fall short.

I presented a summary of my analysis to a spokesperson for ARK; the spokesperson declined to comment on the story.

Looking at ARK as one big company

For this analysis, I'll look at ARK Innovation as if it were one big holding company—call it ARK Inc.—with investments in a number of enterprises. That's the package investors get when they buy the ETF's shares. I calculated the fund's portion in the profits for each of its holdings by applying ARK's percentage of ownership to that company's total earnings. For example, ARK's $900 million investment in Zoom equates to a 1.7% stake. Since Zoom posted GAAP net profits in the past four quarters of $1.1 billion, ARK's share of those profits is $18.7 billion (1.7% x $1.1 billion). Although ARK holds $1.33 billion in Tesla stock and the EV maker is its biggest investment at 8.5% of the portfolio, its ownership position represents just 0.12% of Tesla's over $1 trillion cap. So ARK's share of Tesla's $3.1 billion in trailing profits tallies to just $3.7 million—keep in mind that Tesla sports a gigantic P/E of 350. Likewise, ARK holds 1.9% of Unity Software, which lost $455 million over the trailing four quarters. Hence, our ARK Inc.'s portion of Unity's deficit is a negative $8.6 million.

I added all the gains and losses to establish total earnings for "ARK Inc." The overall profits, what the winners are making versus the market value of ARK's investment in them, and the huge negative numbers for the underwater players and where they occur, point to a fund that's a world removed from a value play, and that must rise at an incredible pace to go from deeply unprofitable to making the big money needed to revive its flagging performance.

On Jan. 4, ARK harbored stocks in 43 companies carrying a market value of $15.6 billion. We could consider that $15.6 billion as ARK Inc.'s market cap. Over the past four quarters, only 10 or fewer than one-quarter of its holdings registered positive GAAP net earnings. That profitmaking group—led by such winners as Roku (6.2% of the portfolio), Coinbase (5.1%), Block (3.75%), and Crispr (2.8%)—posted overall profits of $133.6 million. Now let's consider what the in-the-black contingent sell for compared with their profits. Of the total holdings of $15.6 billion, the plus members account for $5.8 billion, or 37%. The price/earnings multiple for those positive contributors is a lofty 43, well above the recent Nasdaq average of 36. Keep in mind that before the recent selloff, the P/E of ARK's profit winners was far higher.

That multiple of 43, however, is probably understated. Amazingly, the biggest earnings kick comes from the fund's 5% ownership in Coinbase. Since its debut in April, Coinbase has proved richly profitable, garnering almost $3.5 billion and putting ARK's portion at $44 million. In fact, the crypto exchange alone accounts for one-third of the 10 money-spinners' total earnings.

Look for Coinbase's huge contribution to shrink, says David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs. "They're charging exorbitant fees for trading cryptocurrencies," he told Fortune. "People joke on social media that they spent $10 on crypto and paid $20 in fees. Nobody in brokerage or exchange business has margins anywhere close." Trainer contends that competitors will soon be offering similar service at much lower prices, in part because "Coinbase isn't protected by barriers to entry." He posits that Coinbase's future profits will settle at around $1.2 billion a year, well below its current run rate. He's describing just the kind of competitive, profit-crushing dynamic that prevents companies from minting huge margins for long periods, just what Wood's approach depends on. By the way, a drop that sharp in Coinbase's net would push the P/E for ARK's profitable members from 43 to a formidable 55, and further into the danger zone.

ARK’s big problem: a crowd of money losers, mostly medical

The other two-thirds of ARK's investments, measured by their market value on Jan. 3, sits in those 33 lossmakers. Their combined, prorated deficit over the past four quarters is $428 million. So overall, the fund's holdings are generating annual losses of $294 million ($133.6 in profits for the positives minus $428 million in losses for the negatives). Hence, ARK doesn't have a P/E multiple at all. It's generating 2 cents in losses for every one dollar its shares are selling for. A good chunk of those shortfalls flow from adventurous tech bets in such areas as robotics (UiPath), software (Unity), computer hardware (3D Systems), mobile communications (Trimble), and education and training (2U). Based on ARK's ownership percentage, Robinhood is the biggest profit drag, adding $58 million to the losers' overall deficit. Its stock has also been a drag, shedding 60% since its IPO in July.

The class deepest in the red: health care. ARK owns 18 companies valued at $5 billion in the sector, accounting for a third of its portfolio. Seventeen of these players, prized by ARK as spear carriers in a medical revolution, are losing money, measured by GAAP net earnings. Most of the group are striving to develop groundbreaking therapies in biotechnology (Fate Therapeutics, Veracyte, Pacific Bioscience) or genomics (2U, 10X, Crispr). The only profitable holding is Crispr, and it's second only to Coinbase in boosting ARK's plus column. The established titan in gene editing earned $403 million in the past four quarters, bringing ARK's 8.2% share to $33 million.

But the other 17 have dug a hole that Crispr's big contribution couldn't come close to filling. ARK's share of the combined losses in its medical portfolio was $200 million, amounting to around half of the negative group's total hit.

Maybe Wood expects that a few explosive winners in biotech or genomics will bail out ARK. "You expect big skews in returns from these types of companies," notes Ritter. "It's like movies. The vast majority are failures, but you get a couple of blockbusters that can more than pay for the bombs." It could happen at ARK. The rub is that most of Wood's health care investments have been around for a long time. Only five of the 18 had IPOs since the start of 2020. And still, only Crispr is making money.

Where is ARK going from here?

To achieve the 40% annual gains Wood predicts, ARK's stocks would need to produce a total return of 440% by early 2027. To get there, its portfolio companies must grow profits from underground to such gigantic levels that we can assume it won't happen, or even come close to happening. More likely, ARK's still so expensive, still so much the antithesis of the value sphere where the real deals reside, that it will underperform the Nasdaq and other indexes in the years ahead. Wood will probably be better remembered as a cultural phenomenon than a rebel who changed the game. "She's the new model for portfolio managers who talk directly to the people," says Trainer. "She's good at doing things that are popular. But she's also doing a huge disservice to investors."

Wood has caught one of the most powerful currents in investment history. Now the tide's reversing, the white caps are rising, and ARK's heading for a shipwreck.

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